The debates

[Rainbow Dash]

The first debate just ended, in what I think most will agree was a victory for McCain. Obama was too weak, and backed out of alot of arguments. He held his own on foreign policy, surprisingly, but he let McCain shape the discussion on Economy.

The next debate will be Joe Biden vs Palin on Thursday. Your thoughts about this one, and predictions about the next ones?

[Applejack]

I only managed to catch the tail end so my thoughts mean shit, but from what I saw McCain rocked shit.

[Rainbow Dash]

I'm seeing most polls among undecided voters saying that Obama won. While McCain won decently on issues, he didn't get the sound bites that Obama got that will be played on the evening news. His posture and body language was also atrocious - he never even looked at Obama and was visibly irate when he realized that he had lost points against Obama in foreign policy.

[The Deity]

I thought McCain won this debate rather soundly. O'Bama appeared rather passive.

[Rainbow Dash]

I thought so too, but that doesn't seem to be the consensus. I understand what he was doing - he was trying to appear non-partisan, and willing to find common ground, but he really did come across as weak to me.

[Spud Webb]

"John, you like to pretend like the war started in 2007," Obama shot back. "You talk about the surge. The war started in 2003, and at the time when the war started, you said it was going to be quick and easy. You said we knew where the weapons of mass destruction were. You were wrong."

Suck on that dick

[Applejack]

Obama: Senator McCain is absolutely right

McCain: Senator Obama doesn't understand


Repeat.

[Rainbow Dash]

Spud Webb, When anyone says that Obama won the sound bites contest, that's usually what they are referring to. McCain did have stronger points overall, but none of them really were knock-outs like that one. I don't have the whole quote, but he continued after than with "You said sos and so, you were wrong," several times after the first punch.

Droog, they both said that alot, but it was never in response to each other. Obama always came back after being told that he doesn't understand.

[Applejack]

Droog, they both said that alot, but it was never in response to each other. Obama always came back after being told that he doesn't understand.



You must not have read my first post.

[Rainbow Dash]

Yeah, you missed most of it, but I still didnt see that even in the end. Actually, Obama was stronger in the end than he was at first.

[Applejack]

Yeah, you missed most of it, but I still didnt see that even in the end. Actually, Obama was stronger in the end than he was at first.



Transcript/LL

[Rainbow Dash]

You read a transcript? That's worse than hearing it over the radio back in 1960.

[Applejack]

I couldn't rightly watch it on the telly.

[Rainbow Dash]

As of 1 PM today, Obama is leading McCain by 8 points nationwide, according to Gallup. This is pretty much over if the VP debate ends the way everyone expects it to end. There are only 3 realistic ways for McCain to win - Biden makes a major gaffe on Thursday (which is the most likely of the three), Obama makes a gaffe in one of his two remaining debates, or if a dire situation similar to the economic crisis happens that's actually in McCain's favor.

Or something else that's fucking major could happen, like something new being discovered about Obama.

[Spud Webb]

Obama is actually a white man in disguise, like C. Thomas Howell in "Soul Man"

[Nickelback]

As of 1 PM today, Obama is leading McCain by 8 points nationwide, according to Gallup. This is pretty much over if the VP debate ends the way everyone expects it to end. There are only 3 realistic ways for McCain to win - Biden makes a major gaffe on Thursday (which is the most likely of the three), Obama makes a gaffe in one of his two remaining debates, or if a dire situation similar to the economic crisis happens that's actually in McCain's favor.

Or something else that's fucking major could happen, like something new being discovered about Obama.

I don't think so. It's not over until Election Day. What you're hearing is the media's take on it, but that may not always be the truth, and indeed, the outcome. Take a look at the election of 1948. Truman v Dewey. Truman was projected as such an underdog during the campaign that Dewey was practically accepted by many to be the president before votes were even cast. Of course, the famous newspaper publishing broadcasting it didn't help matters, and yet it was an example of the media jumping the gun and forecasting an election's results. You can get a general scope of what people think of the candidates currently with polls, but that does not guarantee voter turnout and how those people will vote. The media is a scary thing, and it's more important than ever to be on the media's side. Look at the 2004 election and how Dean's campaign was effectively ruined.

Here's the thing. We've seen polls jump all over the place in the past several months. To judge a candidate -- with two more debates ahead -- as the victor, is pointless. What is for certain is that this race is close. The following debates could change everything. I'll point to 1960, and the first debate between Kennedy and Nixon. Nixon was in terrible physical shape at the time, while Kennedy was faring much better. An interesting note about that, though. Those who had watched the debate via television saw this and thought Kennedy did better. Those who listened to the radio broadcast thought Nixon did better. After the debate, Kennedy has jumped from a deficit, to a lead. This election was the closest in U.S. history, if you go by electoral votes, and should not be ignored, for this very fact: Nowadays, we got TV coverage as the standard for everything. A mis-step by one of the candidates can change everything in a presidential election, as you know, everyone is going to pick each candidate apart to spot even the tiniest imperfection. It simply isn't over until all the votes have been counted. Another important factor in the 1960 election is that Kennedy was being touted, by Nixon, as too young and inexperienced to lead the nation, and yet, he won. Is this a repeat of history? I don't know. It's a new age, and these candidates are not Kennedy and Nixon. However, I believe that currently, the race is too close to say for certain who will come out on top. We have several more key events that have the potential to change many things.

[Rainbow Dash]

Take a look at the election of 1948. Truman v Dewey. Truman was projected as such an underdog during the campaign that Dewey was practically accepted by many to be the president before votes were even cast
Actually, that just is MORE of a case for Obama. That election was the one and only time Gallup has been wrong. The reason behind that was because Gallup was that they started polling by phone that year, and the telephone was a relatively new invention. The well-connected were over-represented in that poll, leading to the massive inaccuracy. There's a similar, but opposite problem this time:

Study: Omitting cell phone users may affect polls

By ALAN FRAM, Associated Press Writer 1 hour, 35 minutes ago

WASHINGTON - People with only cell phones may differ enough from those with landline telephones that excluding the growing population of cell-only users from public opinion polls may slightly skew the results, a study has concluded.
ADVERTISEMENT

The finding, in a report this week by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center, may increase pressure on polling organizations to include people who use only cell phones in their surveys. While many major polls including The Associated Press-GfK Poll already interview cell phone users, some do not, largely because doing so is more expensive.

Earlier studies — including a joint Pew-AP report two years ago — concluded that cell and landline users had similar enough views that not calling cell users had no major impact on poll findings. The new report concludes that "this assumption is increasingly questionable," especially for young people, who use cells heavily.

Combining polls it conducted in August and September, Pew found that of people under age 30 with only cell phones, 62 percent were Democrats and 28 percent Republicans. Among landline users the same age that gap was narrower: 54 percent Democrats, 36 percent GOP.

Similarly, young cell users preferred Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama over Republican nominee John McCain by 35 percentage points. For young landline users, it was a smaller 13-point Obama edge.

Scott Keeter, Pew's director of survey research, said he believed this was because young cell-only users are less likely to own homes and be married than young people with landlines.

"Those are two variables that are associated with being somewhat more conservative and more Republican," he said.

The report released Tuesday said that in Pew presidential polls from June, August and September, Obama's lead was 2 or 3 percentage points smaller when cell users were omitted. Though such small discrepancies are usually within a poll's margin of error and not statistically significant, this suggests some bias could exist by omitting cell users, which could be crucial in studying a race as close as this year's presidential race.

It has long been known cell users are likelier to be younger, lower income and minorities. Pollsters routinely weight, or adjust, their data so it accurately reflects the age, race and other demographic features of the entire population.

According to federal figures, 16 percent of households had only cell phones during the second half of 2007, and another 13 percent had cell phones and landlines but seldom used the landlines to take calls. Cell-only households have been growing by 1 or 2 percentage points every half year.
tl;dr Younger / more up to speed voters, which are very largely for Obama, are being under-represented in these polls.

I'll point to 1960, and the first debate between Kennedy and Nixon. Nixon was in terrible physical shape at the time, while Kennedy was faring much better. An interesting note about that, though. Those who had watched the debate via television saw this and thought Kennedy did better. Those who listened to the radio broadcast thought Nixon did better. After the debate, Kennedy has jumped from a deficit, to a lead.
Again, this is a strong point for Obama, except this IS showing in the polls. Everywhere I look I'm hearing that McCain came off as grouchy and disrespectful in terms of body language (I can't watch 15 minutes of the news without hearing about how he never once looked at Obama.)

A mis-step by one of the candidates can change everything in a presidential election, as you know, everyone is going to pick each candidate apart to spot even the tiniest imperfection.
In Obama's case, yes, you're right. However, the past two weeks have been nothing BUT mis-steps for McCain - rather large ones at that, and it's not as though he's new to the gaffing business, while Obama hasn't made a major misstep since the Primaries or so, McCain's been producing them like Happy Meal toys in a Chinese factory. Looking at the patterns of these campaigns, it's far far more likely for McCain to make another gaffe than for Obama to make a game-changing one, though it is possible. But if anyone in the Obama camp is going to fuck up, it'll be Biden, though he's behaved himself for the most part since the nomination.

However, I believe that currently, the race is too close to say for certain who will come out on top. We have several more key events that have the potential to change many things
Granted, the polls are close right now. But the ball is in Obama's court, and there don't seem to be too many more opportunities for McCain to turn it around. This last debate was on his strongest issue - Foreign Policy - but following the debate, Obama got a major boost in his foreign policy favorability rating. There's a major crack in the very foundation of McCain's campaign now. I just don't see what he can do to win this now.

[Chicken Little]

Obama is actually a white man in disguise, like C. Thomas Howell in "Soul Man"

See I would have said he's an alternate dimension Michael Jackson where instead of being a pedo blackman wanting to be white former pop idol Obama is a devout politician white man who wanted to be black.

Would explain his need to dance whenever he's on camera and also why he's playing the change card since he comes from the futureeeeeee...

[Night]

O'Bama appeared rather passive. What the fuck is up with that apostrophe?

Obama and Biden are going to appear passive in these debates (Obama moreso, I believe) to prevent the "Angry Black man" and "Mysoginist" stereotypes from destroying their campaign.

[Rainbow Dash]

What the fuck is up with that apostrophe?
Something to do with Ireland. I find it amusing, even though I don't know what ti's supposed to mean.

[Rainbow Dash]

Well then, that debate was disappointing. Palin did wind up looking competent, but not quite enough, and I think that Biden won in the end. And now for the spin.

[Applejack]

Well then, that debate was disappointing. Palin did wind up looking competent, but not quite enough, and I think that Biden won in the end. And now for the spin.


This is a No-Spin Zone.


Now enjoy this track from Sting's new album.

[Rainbow Dash]

I'm not spinning stuff here. I was just waiting for the inevitible spin on the TV and such.

[Applejack]

Well then my post is still on topic.

[Rainbow Dash]

Polls are showing that Biden won, and that Palin didn't do enough to boost her own image, and dodged alot of questions regarding specifics. At the very most, she's gained enough credibility to not be a constant political laughingstock.

[The Deity]

Sarah Palin made me need to smoke cigarettes.

[Rainbow Dash]

I didn't know you smoked. Or did you just start now?

[The Deity]

I don't, I just thought she was horrible. Granted, I didn't really like Biden last night, but Palin's constant changing of topics just drove me nuts.

[Rainbow Dash]

I can kinda see how Biden can be unlikable, though I absolutely love his story (I actually thought I heard him choke up a bit while telling it during the debate.) What I really hated about Palin wasn't so much how she dodged the issues, as that's something that I've grown desensitized to watching Hardball so often. What I hated was how every time Biden referred to something that happened in the past, she accused him of looking backwards when the country needs to look forwards, disregarding how important history is to... hell, everything in politics. I'd understand it if she just did it with the "More of the same" argument, as it would be an attempt, albeit a silly one, to turn the argument back against their opponent. But she also demonstrated a disregard of caring about the history of a crisis when it came to global warming.

[Nickelback]

It's interesting that more people watched this, than the first presidential debate. I didn't really watch it, but it looks like I didn't miss much, even though I really have nothing to point out like I did about the first debate, as a result of. From what I can tell, Palin made her point on talking directly to the American people, (aka the camera?) while Biden was pressing her enough to ensure she slipped up on her own accord, like getting the correct name of the commanding general in Afghanistan. A minor infraction, I know, but, if you're running for the second most prestigious position of the United States of America, there really is no room for error, even less so if you're that person who would take over in the event the worst happened. Disappointing, but interesting. On the flip side of the token, however, she went from this governor almost no one knew, to being a VP candidate. That's got to be a huge amount of information to absorb.

Unfortunately, this debate wasn't a game changer from what I could see, and as a result, I still don't know who I'm going to vote for. Hmm.

[Rainbow Dash]

This one was alot closer. I think Obama still came up on top, but just barely. But if McCain didn't thrash him on this one, he's not going to do any better in the next debate, or the rest of the campaign.

[Rainbow Dash]

McCain did alot better on this debate, in terms of composure. But Obama thrashed him on the issues, imo. Then again, I missed the beginning, which I hear McCain did well in.

[Applejack]

Joe the Plumber was a really hot topic on another, somewhat political, forum. From what I saw, Obama was doing well.

[The Deity]

I didn't catch this one, living with a Dodgers fan we had other priorities tonight.

[Chicken Little]

I didn't catch this one, living with a Dodgers fan we had other priorities tonight.

Hawt man secks? I hope you made a video!

Actually this got some air time on TV here, what with it being the last debate between the two? Just felt the need to say that it was actually televised here as well although it flopped like a giant bitch because no one gave a crap.

[Rainbow Dash]

it flopped like a giant bitch because no one gave a crap.
Seeing as how nobody gives a crap about Australia either, I guess that's fair enough.

In less sarcastic terms, you'd probably have a whole lot more interest in it if you were involved in some controversy or another. You guys are mostly on the sidelines as opposed to say UK, Russia, Iran, or Venezuela.

[Chicken Little]

Seeing as how nobody gives a crap about Australia either, I guess that's fair enough.

Says the man in recession to the man not.

In less sarcastic terms, you'd probably have a whole lot more interest in it if you were involved in some controversy or another. You guys are mostly on the sidelines as opposed to say UK, Russia, Iran, or Venezuela.

Politically yes, however the debate was televised more so because of the financial crisis which, and rightly or wrongly so many here blame on the USA so there is already in some cases even more resentment that due to ties between Australia and USA under the Howard Government they were probably banking on explanations, future prospects and "those fucking pissant yanks!" opinions for their audience.

[Dark Luther]

Yeah, cause the Japanese and Singapore financial stagnation had nothing to do with it...